Alevel经济知识点讲解 失业与总供需联系的联系（下）

Alevel经济学是一门炙手可热的科目，同学们不仅可以在这门课程中学习到经济运行规律知识，更可以培养一种完备的经济学思维，学会如何对有限的资源进行最优分配并实现效益最大化。以下是小编为大家收集汇总的Alevel经济学知识中有关失业和总供需之间的联系，中英对照方便大家理解和记忆，上篇的内容可以在本站检索查看，一起来看看吧！

Can the ‘natural rate’ of unemployment change?

失业率的”自然率”可以改变吗？

As you can see from the data on unemployment in the 50s and 60s, the natural rate was barely 3% at the time. The huge increase in structural unemployment in the 80s caused the natural rate to rise in the 80s. Estimates varied between 8% and 12%. Remember, the actual unemployment rate can easily be higher than the natural rate. In times of recession, there will be a lot of demand-deficient unemployment (or cyclical unemployment) causing many workers to be involuntarily unemployed. So even though the unemployment rate was well over 10% in the mid 80s, some economists felt that the natural rate was only 8%.

从50年代和60年代的失业数据可以看出，当时的自然率几乎没有3%。80年代结构性失业的巨大增长导致80年代的自然率上升。估计在8%到12%之间。请记住，实际失业率很容易高于自然率。在经济衰退时期，会有大量的需求不足的失业（或周期性失业）导致许多工人非自愿失业。因此，即使在80年代中期，失业率远远超过10%，一些经济学家认为自然率只有8%。

The best way to reduce the natural rates is through supply side policies, especially those aimed at the labour market. Examples include investment in education and training and the ‘New Deal’.

降低自然率的最好方法是通过供应方政策，特别是针对劳动力市场的政策。这方面的例子包括对教育和培训的投资以及”新政”。

As the UK economy came out of the recession of the early 90s, economists found it hard to estimate what, exactly, was the natural rate of unemployment. They kept revising their estimate downwards as the economy kept creating jobs, but the actual unemployment rate kept falling below their estimates of the natural rate with no increase in the rate of inflation (the inflation rate is meant to rise if unemployment falls below the natural rate). Basically, most economists have been surprised at how far the level of unemployment (and, therefore, the natural rate) has fallen.

随着英国经济走出90年代初的衰退，经济学家们发现很难准确估计自然失业率是多少。随着经济不断创造就业机会，他们不断向下修正他们的估计，但实际失业率一直低于他们对自然失业率的估计，而通货膨胀率没有增加（如果失业率低于自然失业率，通货膨胀率将上升）。基本上，大多数经济学家对失业水平（以及自然率）下降的程度感到惊讶。

Although economists still agree that the original Phillips curve trade off is still only a short term phenomena, most would agree that this short term trade off occurs at much lower levels of inflation and unemployment. In other words, the short run Phillips curve has shifted towards the origin along with the vertical long run Phillips curve.

尽管经济学家们仍然同意，最初的菲利普斯曲线交易仍然只是一个短期现象，但大多数人都会同意，这种短期交易发生在通货膨胀和失业率低得多的水平上。换句话说，短期的菲利普斯曲线已经和垂直的长期菲利普斯曲线一起向原点移动。

Patrick Minford, the extreme monetarist economist, has argued all along that the natural rate is as low as 3%-4% due to the success of the supply side reforms of the 80s and 90s. The ILO measure of unemployment is currently around 5.5%, so perhaps the level of unemployment can fall a bit further.

极端的货币主义经济学家帕特里克-明福德（Patrick Minford）一直认为，由于80年代和90年代的供给侧改革的成功，自然利率低至3%-4%。目前国际劳工组织衡量失业率的标准是5.5%左右，所以也许失业率水平还能再下降一些。

以上是小编为大家总结的alevel经济学知识点的梳理，希望对大家有所帮助，祝各位同学学业有成金榜题名！如有更多Alevel辅导的需要，欢迎联系在线客服老师，会获得更专业的指导~